Celebrating its 10th anniversary year, Suzee Brain, takes a look back at the trends predicted by B&P for the shopping centre industry in relation to food over the past decade. What came true, what never materialised and what lies ahead!

Predictions 2009 – 2013 B&P started our annual food trends predictions in 2009 – for the first few years our predictions stated that off the back of the GFC, we would see a rise in ‘luxe fast food’ as customers traded down from fine dining restaurants to a more casual dining experience. We also predicted that tenancies would all need to incorporate healthier menu options, including paying attention to ethical sourcing, allergies and low fat. We suggested food lanes had potential to replace food courts as consumers moved towards a more upmarket fast food experience.

What happened – Most of the above came true. The fast casual food sector became the fastest growing category for five years running from 2012 – 2017, growing at five times the rate of other mediums.

We saw the birth of Grill’d, Roll’d, Zeus, Schnitz, GYG, Jimmy Grants, Huxtaburger, Shanghai Dumpling and so many more.

Ethical sourcing became the lynch pin of marketing campaigns for the likes of Burger Urge and almond milk chai lattes are now available in practically every café in Australia.

What’s next – The reinvention of the Food Court is slow. Focus has been on entertainment and casual dining precincts while the food court has been left to rot. Sub-regionals in particular are at greatest risk of the food court not surviving the retail downturn.

Predictions 2014 – 2018
In the past five years, our trend predictions have oscillated between experience and convenience. In the experience area we called for mini major food concepts – dedicated Eataly and Asian style Food Halls and activation of food precincts through curation, entertainment and placemaking additions. On the convenience side our predictions were around the influence and effect of home delivery services, drones and Artificial Intelligence (AI) along with the Zero Waste movement. And we started talking about bugs in our diet!

Eataly Agrifood Park, Bologna

What happened – Well there’s no Eataly yet! But we are getting some local concepts of about 1,500m2 with brands like Mercado e Cucina in Sydney and Mercado in Brisbane. We’ve got some Asian Food Centres like 8 Street and HWKR but there are still no complete Asian Food Halls combining fresh and dine.

In regards to the home delivery revolution, the sector has experienced 3.7% growth pa for the past five years although IBIS world is predicting this growth is likely to slow to about 0.7% pa going forward. Probably the number one question we get asked at any keynote address we make, is the impact of home delivery.

Industry estimates value the home delivery market at about $600 million, so it still only represents less than 2% of the total food catering market in Australia.

Our lack of density and vast distances still make it an urban solution only. Additionally, the financial model is unrealistic for many retailers and drivers to be able to sustain and we predict it will come unstuck in the near future. In the meantime, best to embrace it. Our recommendation is to plan operational space for drivers (rear entry and parking spots) and ensure the rents struck reflect both the instore and online sales potential, which may see occupancy cost % rise as more sales are recorded in the cloud than in the cash register.

Zero Waste took hold faster than we ever expected. Within a few short years we have said goodbye to plastic takeaway containers, disposable coffee cups, single use shopping bags and straws. What’s next? Look out pre-packed fruit, veg and meat trays. There are already case studies coming through showing how customer spends increase when customers pack their own vegies and fruit anyway.

And what about fried crickets and pasta made from mealworms?

Both Kaufland and Sainsbury’s have gone big into edible insect ranges and rumours are swirling we will see ranges on Australian supermarket shelves by March!

With green ants featuring in the pantry of Masterchef it’s inevitable that home cooks will be calling out for bugs before we know it!

What lies ahead – Overall, food catering and food retail still offer plenty of opportunity to protect asset income and extend the customer dwell time. At a recent breakfast hosted by Urbis to launch the 2019 Shopping Centre Industry benchmark Report, its data spoke of how Top 10 Regionals and the Single Supermarket Centres were the two categories most benefitting still from food (that old convenience versus experience chestnut again!) and some strong data showing how foot traffic is declining but average in centre spend per customer is growing – much of it as a result of better food and entertainment experiences.

Our prediction is that only shopping centre owners prepared to take a strategic approach to really understanding their current food performance and trade area potential and then curating concepts and a mix built to the ‘customer’ – not the available deal – will see the best returns for their investment. There are plenty more big ideas on food to come!